Relax…You Might Not Be Doomed

by Steven Milloy

Public Risk (February 1997)

(Reprinted with permission of Public Risk)

Steven Milloy is president of the Environmental Policy Analysis Network in Washington, D. C, and the publisher of The Junk Science Home Page (http://www.junkscience.com).  Material presented on this home page constitutes opinion of the author.

Laxatives cause cancer. Caffeine prevents pregnancy. Pizza prevents prostate cancer. Vitamins prevent cancer. Vitamins cause cancer. It seems like we’ve been bombarded by such claims recently. One report says something’s bad for us; another says no, it’s really good. What’s the truth? Do you need to be a scientist to figure it out? What, and who, should we believe?

A Grain of Salt

Despite their urgent tone, many of these claims actually mean little by themselves. And they usually mean even less to any specific individual. Any study gives only part of the rarely reported larger picture. A study may report that electric power lines, chlorinated tap water or some pesticide increases cancer risk. But often the study is only one of a number of studies, the great majority of which may be contradictory.

Over the past 15 years, many studies have claimed to link electric power lines with brain cancer. But there also have been many that didn’t make that link. Even as study techniques have improved, the split in these results has remained, and no study has yet indicated how electric power lines could possibly cause brain cancer. Even where no health risk actually exists, just by chance alone, some studies will falsely report that   a risk exists.

In addition to the shortcomings of these studies, there’s also a “publication bias” — the recognized tendency for medical journals to publish studies that identify risks rather than studies that don’t. A 1994 survey by the Academy of Emergency Medicine of the most widely read medical research journals found that 80 percent of published research consists of positive studies.

Scientific knowledge develops incrementally over time and isn’t a one-study endeavor. Be wary of any one study. It’s likely to mean less than it claims.

One in a Million

Another problem with these ominous studies is that their relevance to the individual is often oversold. Much research relies on epidemiology, the study of disease in actual human populations. But epidemiology’s strengths are also its Achilles’ heel. Epidemiology is about observed rates of disease in particular small populations, not future risks to all beings.

Although studies may show that, in the past, one in three Americans got cancer, it’s not necessarily true that every American has a one-in-three risk of getting cancer. Many individuals will be at greater risk of cancer and many will be at lower risk. And most of the time it’s impossible to identify with any accuracy who’s at  greater risk.

Many researchers like to claim that something “causes” disease. But claims of causation are rarely true. Consider smoking-probably the most heavily studied and highly publicized health risk. Studies have reported that populations of heavy smokers have gotten lung cancer at a rate 20 times greater than nonsmokers. As a result of such studies, researchers have concluded that smoking “causes” lung   cancer. But is the cause-and-effect relationship that simple?

Based on American Cancer Society statistics, one of every 10,000 nonsmokers gets lung cancer. If the rate of lung cancer among heavy smokers is 20 times greater, then out of every 10,000 heavy smokers, 20 will get lung cancer. This means that less than 1 percent of heavy smokers (20 out of 10,000) get lung cancer.

So, does smoking “cause” lung cancer in the same way that, say, a gunshot causes death? Or is it more likely that some unknown combination of additional factors, including genetics and lifestyle, also play a role in who gets lung cancer? Genetic predisposition to cancer was recently highlighted in a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association on smoking and breast cancer.  In reality, cause-and-effect relationships are complex and not well understood. Beware of attempts to simplify them.

Loose Connections

Unbeknownst to the public, studies often depend upon unproven — and often undisclosed assumptions. For example, the National Cancer Institute recently concluded that radon gas in homes causes 12,000 lung cancer deaths annually.

Although studies show that high levels of radon gas in underground uranium mines increased cancer rates among miners, the typical home isn’t an underground uranium mine. How does NCI conclude that 12,000 die annually from radon in the home?

NCI assumed that because high levels of radon increased cancer rates among miners, then any radon exposure increases cancer risk. This assumption, never scientifically validated, is then applied to a mathematical model that calculates the 12,000 figure.

Not only do many studies of radon in homes contradict this assumption, some even suggest that lower lung cancer rates occur in geographic areas with relatively higher levels of radon.

A favorite attention-getting technique of researchers is to estimate “body counts” such as 300,000 die each year from obesity, 120,000 from inactivity or 60,000 from air pollution. However, body counts depend on the assumption that death rates observed in small study populations are predictive of what happens to the entire population in the future.

Also, body counts are strictly hypothetical. The figures are arrived at using statistics, not by counting bodies. They’re not audited to see if they’re accurate. In contrast, the 150,000 annual deaths from trauma-induced injuries are countable.

Too Many Variables

Finally, beware of researchers who try to split a hair with an ax. Epidemiology is useful only in studying high disease rates or rare diseases, and preferably both. For example, heavy smokers are reported to have a relatively high rate of the relatively rare disease of lung cancer.  Population data on small risks or common diseases typically have too much “noise” for epidemiologists to filter out. Simply put, epidemiology cannot eliminate all the variability among humans.

Also, researchers often don’t really know how much of a risk factor the individuals in a studied population have been exposed to and are forced to guess at exposure levels.

Let’s say a study reports that living near a hazardous waste incinerator increases cancer risk to a very high one in 1,000. For practical reasons, the researchers will likely not have measured the extent to which the studied individuals have been exposed to emissions from the incinerator.

On the other hand, one in three Americans develops cancer as a function of being alive. And any population, by chance alone, may have a higher risk than that. How sure can anyone be that an additional one-in-1, 000 risk can be traced to incinerator emissions, particularly if actual exposures, let alone their toxicity, aren’t known with reasonable certainty? A good rule of thumb for epidemiological studies is that reported increases in risk on the order of 100 percent or less are too small to detect with certainty.

Keep in mind the recent words of Dr. Charles Hennekens of the Harvard School of Public Health: “Epidemiology is a crude and inexact science. We tend to overstate findings either because we want attention or more grant money.” Clearly, there is more to medical research news than just the headlines.      

The following is a resume of the Code of Ethics of the American Sociological Association.

1. Researchers must maintain scientific objectivity.

2. Researchers must recognize the limitations of their competence and not attempt to engage in research beyond such competence.

3. Every person is entitled to the right of privacy and dignity of treatment.

4.  All research should avoid causing personal harm to subjects used in research.

5. Confidential information provided by a research subject must be held in strict confidentiality by the research.

6. Research findings should be presented honestly, without distortion

7.  The research must not use the prerogative of a researcher to obtain information for other than professional purposes.

8. The researcher must acknowledge all assistance, collaboration of others, or sources which information was borrowed from others.

9. The researcher must acknowledge financial support in the research report or any personal relationship of the researcher with the sponsor that may conceivably affect the research findings.

10. The researcher must not accept any favors, grants, or other means of assistance that would violate any of the ethical principles set forth above.

In this age of information, sponsored studies have become America’s most powerful and popular tool of persuasion. Although the studies and surveys wear the guise of objective science, their findings almost invariably reflect their sponsors’ intentions.  Most such research is designed with a certain outcome in mind, and it is all but guaranteed to achieve that outcome.

The result is a corruption of information- the information used every day by voters, consumers, and leaders. Studies have become the vehicle for polishing corporate images, influencing juries, shaping debate on public policy, selling commercial products and satisfying the media’s – and the public’s- voracious appetite for information.

How’s the week going? To be frank, I hope your week’s going better than mine thus far. Hopefully better than mine by miles.

I’ve been contemplating my life. Or rather how I view my passage through life and how I connect to people through my years.

And by connect, I mean at an emotional, interpersonal and even spiritual level.

And in my contemplations, one thing hit me. And that is I see my life as a thread with the people in my life as beads on that thread.

Like jewels adorning a necklace, if you will.

I see a past, and I see a future.
I also learnt that even if the thread frays into strands, one constant remains.
That constant a person is tied to me and that I am tied to that person by the main thread. That main thread is the path of my life. The path laid by both God’s will and my actions.

In my meditations on this long thread stretching through me many things stood out, and I shall mention one here.

I realised that I should dwell on what lay behind me, my past – as it is unchangeable. I learnt that while my past shaped me, it is not the be-all and end-all of who I am.

I learnt that I should take a different approach, namely to take the past and learn from it to shape my present to make my future a reality.

And I learnt to look ahead to the future and keep my focus there.
I learnt to see the past as my toolbox.
A toolbox from which I take the skills and experiences I’ve acquired to build the road leading me from the present to the future.
A toolbox from which I take my past interactions with people, both good and bad and use them to shape my words with the people in my present to build a future.

I say this with much strength, for as I contemplated the possible strands of my future – one point remained clear.

And that point is that as the people who shaped my past fade from life into memory there is a pure purpose behind it.
That purpose is to pave the way for me to shape my future by focusing on those standing before me in the present.

It is life shaping itself, clearing the way. For out of every ending comes new beginnings.

I thought deeper and further on this point, and it became clear to me what my focus should be.
I looked to the future, and in every fray of the thread ahead I saw the strongest woman I have ever known.

I saw God’s hand in my past when her gem was strung on my life-thread in November 2005. I saw His hand tie the knot affixing the gem to the main thread in December of the same year.

I saw the gem as a lens; but one focusing not light but the experiences of my past, which it changed into lessons for the future.

Of course, I am talking about Keisha. We have been together five years and one month come today, January 17 2011, and with no regrets I make one thing clear.

And that she is my future. I have learnt much from her in our shared past, and I know beyond all doubt that I have much more to learn in our shared future.

Keisha has taught me much about many things in our years together. Strength, focus, resolve and above all faith. She, through her life has taught me what it means to never give up. Ever.

I have seen Keisha pick herself up from things that would have knocked others down many, many times over.

Things that would have left others turning their back on God, questioning Him and spurning Him.

Such a woman deserves not only our recognition but our respect, and what I feel for her goes beyond that for me.

She deserves from me someone strong enough to pave the way for her, someone who doesn’t fail.

And looking to the future, I strive to be that person in the present to build a future with her in it.
For my past is filled with failures, times where I have not given her love for me the due it deserves. Times where I have demanded too much from her, misunderstood her.

Times where she has had to forgive me.

I have to learn from my past. For I cannot afford to lose my future. Not when it looks this good, in more ways than one.

This is tanyiliang, signing out.

I know it’s been a while since I posted here. And I know it’s my first post of the year. So Happy 2011, belated by 13 days.

Keisha reminded me a few days ago that it’s been a while since I last wrote anything here. A long while – to be precise.

Yes. Basically I have been at a loss for words. I had no idea what to say when I fired up this screen and put fingers to keyboard.

The fingers would go to the keyboard. Yes, that part could be done. The question was- could they move. The usual answer was no, as for fingers to move in this space they need a specific fuel.

And that specific fuel? Ideas. Concepts. Thoughts.
You can’t write if you have nothing to say, i.e. if you are at a loss for words.

I must say events this week have jolted me out of being at a loss for words.
Or, to be more specific- a certain tweet I had the fortune (or misfortune) of laying eyes on.

I follow the Kuala Lumpur Traffic Updates twitter community. And on that day- I read a comment from someone who made me see red.

He commented a driver was driving badly.
That is fine. I have no quarrel with that. I have done such tweets myself.
But what I have never done, ever is to disparage people with disabilities(PWDs), or to quote the Bahasa Malaysia term which I frankly find disgusting, Orang Kurang Upaya, or OKU.
It translates to “People with Reduced Abilities”
I have also never insinuated that people who drove badly “drove as if they were disabled”.

I saw red at his tweet, and the fact that he has ignored all calls to redeem himself by issuing a sincere apology for such a comment.

But this post is not about my dispute with him.
It is rather about a fight I have held ever since I was brought to see how differently able people (a term I prefer to use) are treated in this country- like second class, inferior human beings.

And that is a misconception that is far from the truth. Far, far from the truth.
There is absolutely nothing “inferior” about differently able people. Take for example, Jessica Cox, who despite being born with no arms is not only a psychology graduate and motivational speaker, but a qualified driver and pilot.

As I said, a differently able person. Not a dis-abled person.

I could cite many many other examples, such as the physicist Stephen Hawking, or America’s longest-serving President, Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Again, I say – differently able person.

I posted a rant on Facebook the same day, and I admittedly got some very interesting and enlightening views.

One friend argued that if we were to continuously correct such people, it would be a never-ending task. She argued that the better method would be to educate the public by raising awareness of the real capabilities of differently able people.

I will admit that I agree with this to some extent.
However, there is another aspect to this as my beloved Keisha pointed out- which I will quote here.

The words below are Keisha’s.

“However, if a child or civically disabled adult (ahem!) are shouting insults against those marginalized it is necessary to correct them.

Just take for example a kid that goes to school and hangs around with a bunch of rowdy kids, these kids point out “tengok orang cacat itu, kenapa dia tidak dalam kelas untuk orang cacat?” (“Look at the disabled person, why is he/she not in a class for the disabled?”)
Eventually, this attitude will become indoctrinated in the kid and it becomes imbued in his or her subculture. If teachers or parents do not correct this behavior, it will have damaging effects as the child becomes an adult.

If you want real-life examples, consider that Twitter user @ah_TaNk who labeled that a driver who drove badly drove like an OKU who was “cacat otak” or MACC Prosecutions Head Abdul Razak Musa who insulted Karpal Singh during the Teoh inques…t in open court.

Having said that, I agree with you that correcting peoples statements so that they are “politically correct” is never-ending. However, one can also argue that raising awareness about the capabilities of the people with physical challenges or about anything at all is never-ending.

I give you a personal experience. I went through mountains to prove to certain people that I am able to drive. I went for the medical checkup, passed the test on my first run and I’ve never met with an accident or been stopped by police for… haphazard driving. However, certain people are still dissuaded from all the hard evidence that contradicts their opinion. It seems like I will have to fight to the end to prove them wrong.
Witness Jessica Cox driving a car or piloting a plane with her feet. Truly, the human will knows no bounds.

And yes, getting that summa cum laude is an achievement I will get to prove some people wrong, but more importantly to prove to myself that I can do it.”

I’ll rest here. Keisha sums it up better than I do.

This is tanyiliang signing out

                   I am amazed by this woman, her perseverance knows no bounds!

Truly, when one Ability gets taken away; God will step in to strengthen another!!

God, grant us the…

Serenity to accept things we cannot change,

Courage to change the things we can, and the

Wisdom to know the difference

Patience for the things that take time

Appreciation for all that we have, and

Tolerance for those with different struggles

Freedom to live beyond the limitations of our past ways, the

Ability to feel your love for us and our love for each other and the

Strength to get up and try again even when we feel it is hopeless.

1. Workout religiously every week at the gym, I need to get my mobility back and the faster I get it, the faster I can get back to driving!! (It’s time people, friggin’ graduate to competent driving license and then all this shiz happened to me in one year!) Ok lah, get my independence back is important too ya know so I can get back to doing normal things.

2. Weed out all the junk in my diet and start taking my bio propolis regularly, no matter how much I detest the pungent, foul-smelling black liquid. Ok, I am being realistic in saying that I am not totally gonna cut out junk food, I live to eat (and I ain’t afraid to say it) and so there are some things which I refuse to compromise on such as replacing white rice with brown rice, I absolutely despise brown rice!! What can I say? I am ya typical Asian gal! My sweet tooth cannot bear to live without all the lovelies in my Grandma’s kitchen too, cookies, cakes, chocolate, ice cream, puddings….yum! Did I mention I love everything chocolate too? Ahh well, everything in moderation, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN!?!?

3.  Cross fingers I will not need surgery this year so that I will complete my quota of 10 subs this year. Maintain my GPA and finish off my freshman year (man I gotta think about my internship now)!

4. Learn ASL through Gallaudet University’s Online program. It is a MUST to learn sign language this year and teach everybody around me with it. This is me moving on and not sulking in my deafened world anymore.

5. Before I retire to sleep each night, I will thank God for everything that I have in my life.

Live life and fill it with great memories for the year 2011.

Not too many, so it’s manageable and realistic

Hello Friends,
 
I would like to draw your attention for a quick second to something that is near and dear to my heart – helping to end the long and cruel reign of NF 2 and to finally be set free from the menacing shackles of NF 2 that we are trapped in from the moment we are diagnosed with this wretched illness. As you may know, I was diagnosed with Neurofibromatosis Type 2 at an early age. It is a genetic condition marked by various benign (and sometimes cancerous) tumors that grow on the nervous system, that includes the brain and the spine – two extremely important centers within our bodies for everyday functioning. To give you an idea of what we go through, let us start with a tumor that is inherently present within almost all who are diagnosed with NF 2; the tumor that grows on the hearing nerve. During our early 20s, we succumb to losing not just our hearing but our sense of balance coupled with suffering the consequences of facial paralysis (such as the inability to smile or worse yet, the inability to shut our eyes completely which leads to severe dry eyes. If not treated with eye lubricants on a daily basis, we may lose our vision as well because it’s very important that the corneas of our eyes stay lubricated).
 
For me personally, I have had a myriad of surgeries to remove these tumors since I was 9 years old. Each time, I had to climb my way out of that pit of despair. With each surgery, I lost a little piece of me forever. I was constantly barraged with teases as a child from my school peers. I even suffered the misfortune of having my spine compromised by an overly confident and unapologetic neurosurgeon. As a result, if it wasn’t for the miraculous hands of my orthopaedic surgeon in India, I would not be here right now. However, I have clung on very tightly over the years to the adage which I have come to respect, that is that “there is always a way to survive what seems insurvivable”. I learned to look at NF in a different light. It taught me many things, things which some people will never learn, never come full circle with, no matter how brittle their bones get! I learned at a very early age who was my friend and who was not, I learned to prioritize the important things in life, I learned to be comfortable in my own skin, I learned not to waste time on what seems frivolous as time on earth is very short, I learned never to take life for granted, I learned that Faith is not the belief that God will do what I want but instead the belief that God will do what is right for me. When I look at my reflection in the mirror and see all the bumps and scars on my body, I no longer stare at them in anguish but rather, every bump and every scar on my body is a reminder that I have fought a long and hard battle with NF 2 – and I have won.  I even found a man who could care less about the “flaws” on my body, a man who would never leave my side no matter what happens to me, I realize how rare that is and indeed I am grateful that God had such a person in mind in His plans for me.
 
May it be known that NF is commonly mistaken as a “rare genetic disorder”. NF is THE MOST COMMON GENETIC CONDITION, more common than cystic fibrosis, duchenne muscular dystrophy and Huntington’s disease combined. How many times have you heard about these conditions on TV, in the newspaper?
 
Thankfully, the scientific and medical community has evolved and is making rapid progress to finding a prevention or a cure for NF. For instance, I am participating in a study in America where a team of researchers study the progress of NF in many people across the spectrum in the hopes of understanding Neurofibromatosis a little better. I had the previlege of meeting the head researcher, Dr. Ashok Asthagiri. I think he is a remarkable human being, at just 35, he has devoted his entire career to understanding the effects of this deadly disease. I have never met a more down-to-earth neurosurgeon, his ability to empathize and connect with all his patients is very much a rare trait found in doctors today.
 
Anyway, on to the point of my letter, I certainly hope you are still reading by the way. There are many of us who are fighting hard for a cure for NF and I had the honor of meeting a woman who climbed Mt. Kilamanjaro and made a movie out of it in the hopes of raising funds for research and spreading awareness despite being burdened with all the disabilities that NF 2 brings. Rebecca did not reach the summit of Mt. Kilamanjaro, but as I have said many times to many people that she has indeed accomplished the very summit of her purpose. How many abled-bodied people have done what she has? I am awe-strucked and inspired to know someone as brave as she is, she suffered through Non-Hodgkins Lymphoma, multiple brain surgeries and a spine surgery as a result of NF 2 but as you can see, she has unwaivering strength. Let us not forget the many others who have it much worse than Rebecca, but are weathering each storm as it comes.
 
As such, I humbly request that you visit http://helpstopnf2.org/ and kindly make a donation to Help Stop NF2. Please remember that NF 1 occurs in 1 : 3000 births…..1 : 3000 births. NF 2 in 1 : 25,000 births…These are jarring statistics and please let these facts slowly sink in. I may not see the cure in my lifetime, but I cannot bear to see another child endure this hardship.  I have even made the decision to forego the experience of motherhood, if it means I can spare my child of this deadly illness. Please make a donation, even if it is a small one as many small ones can go a long way.
 
Please remember, your child may be next.
 
Thank you very much for all your help.
 
Keisha